Just Released: Viewpoint 2026 Jan 21, 2026

IRR’s Annual Viewpoint 2026 Commercial Real Estate Report Unveils Where Recovery, Risk, & Opportunity Lie Ahead
33rd Edition Examines Economic Trends, Capital Markets, and Shifting Performance Across U.S. Property Sectors, 
with Special Reports on Senior Housing, Quick-Service Restaurants & Self Storage 

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DENVER, CO — (Jan. 21, 2026) — According to Integra Realty Resources’ (IRR) newly released commercial real estate trends report, Viewpoint 2026, the U.S. market is entering a period of stabilization, defined by evolving economic conditions and increasing differentiation across property sectors. Viewpoint 2026 delivers in-depth, expert analysis and data-driven insights designed to help investors, lenders, and owners better assess where opportunities are emerging and risks persist in a more selective market environment.

“U.S. economic performance has allowed commercial real estate asset pricing to ride a razor’s edge since interest rates began escalating in the back half of 2022,” said IRR CEO Anthony M. Graziano. “Strong employment and economic fundamentals have provided some support, even as pricing has been flat or declining in most markets. Looking ahead to 2026, this cycle is producing sharper differentiation between assets and markets, reinforcing the importance of discipline as capital markets adjust amid slower growth and ongoing headwinds.”

Now in its 33rd edition, Viewpoint 2026 reflects the collective insights of IRR’s nearly 600 valuation advisors across the U.S. and Caribbean. This year, IRR partnered with economist Nick Luettke of Moody’s Analytics to provide an analysis of key macroeconomic indicators, adding context around how shifting economic conditions are shaping investor behavior, pricing discipline, and capital allocation decisions. The report also delivers sector-specific insights and data points expected to shape property performance and valuations in the year ahead, along with three specialty property reports.

“As we enter 2026, we see that the economic environment is becoming more stable, but growth is slower and visibility remains limited,” said Nick Luettke, Economist at Moody’s. “Inflation has eased from recent peaks and interest rates have started to trend lower, however, borrowing costs remain elevated relative to prior cycles. With labor markets softening and policy uncertainty still at play, economic conditions are supportive in some areas but restrictive in others, contributing to uneven performance across the U.S. commercial real estate market.”

IRR Viewpoint 2026 Highlights:

U.S Property Markets

Office:

• The office sector remains under pressure, with the national office vacancy rate holding near record levels at 20.7% as of Q3 2025 and net absorption remaining slightly negative.
• Market performance is highly fragmented, with 43.5% of U.S. office markets in recession and 46.8% in recovery, while only one market, Charleston, South Carolina, is classified as expansionary, underscoring the uneven nature of stabilization.
• Effective rent growth remains muted at approximately 0.2% nationally, with concessions continuing to play a significant role, particularly for Class B and C properties.
• Central business districts (CBDs) have begun to outperform suburban markets in rent growth in several major metros, reversing pandemic-era trends, although overall office fundamentals remain challenged.
• Despite weak fundamentals, large office transaction activity showed signs of life, with deal volume for major office transactions increasing 34% year over year in Q3, driven by selective investor interest in high-quality assets.

Multifamily:

• The multifamily sector is entering a stabilization phase as the recent construction boom winds down, with total completions down approximately 15% year over year as of Q3 2025, though still above pre-pandemic averages.
• National vacancy rates have stabilized at 6.5% throughout 2025, as slower supply growth allows demand to catch up following several years of elevated deliveries.
• Rent growth has moderated meaningfully, with year-over-year growth slowing to 1.1% in September, and quarterly asking and effective rents declining slightly in Q3 for the first time since late 2023.
• Market performance remains uneven, with many Sun Belt metros continuing to absorb excess supply, while northern Snow Belt markets have generally benefited from lower construction levels and more stable demand fundamentals on average.
• Capital markets remain cautious, with cap rates increasing nationally over the past year and operating expenses continuing to rise faster than rental income, reinforcing the importance of pricing discipline and asset-level fundamentals.

Retail:

• The retail sector continues to demonstrate relative stability, with more than half of U.S. retail markets classified in either recovery or expansion, reflecting steady fundamentals despite broader economic uncertainty.
• Retail vacancy remains historically low at approximately 4.7% nationally, supported by limited new construction and sustained tenant demand for well-located space.
• Grocery-anchored, service-oriented, and necessity-based retail formats continue to outperform, driven by consistent foot traffic and demand for in-person services.
• Rent growth has remained modest but positive, with national retail rents increasing approximately 1.4% year over year, supported by constrained supply and improving tenant sales.
• While certain segments, particularly enclosed malls, continue to face challenges, overall retail performance remains supported by disciplined development activity and stable consumer spending patterns.

Industrial:

• The industrial sector is transitioning into a more normalized phase, with national vacancy rising to approximately 6.8% as of Q3 2025, reflecting a slowdown in absorption following several years of elevated new supply.
• Net absorption has moderated significantly from pandemic-era highs, as tenants take a more measured approach to expansion amid slower economic growth and inventory right-sizing.
• Rent growth has decelerated but remains positive, with national industrial rents increasing approximately 3.0% year over year, supported by long-term demand fundamentals despite near-term supply pressure.
• New construction activity has begun to decline, with industrial deliveries trending lower heading into 2026 as developers respond to softer leasing conditions and tighter capital markets.
• Structural demand drivers, including supply chain reconfiguration, nearshoring, and domestic manufacturing investment, continue to support long-term industrial fundamentals, even as short-term market conditions rebalance.

Hospitality:

• The hospitality sector continues to normalize following several years of strong post-pandemic demand, with national occupancy stabilizing near 63% in 2025, in line with long-term historical averages.
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR) growth has moderated, increasing approximately 2.1% year over year, as gains shift from rate-driven growth to more balanced contributions from both occupancy and pricing.
• Leisure-oriented markets and resort destinations continue to outperform, while urban and group-oriented hotels are seeing steadier but more gradual recovery trends.
• Operating expenses remain elevated, particularly labor and insurance costs, placing pressure on margins even as top-line performance stabilizes.
• Capital markets activity remains selective, with investors favoring well-located assets with strong brand affiliation and realistic pricing, while transaction volumes remain below pre-pandemic norms.

Specialty Property Reports

Healthcare & Senior Housing:

• Senior housing fundamentals continue to improve, with national occupancy rising steadily through 2025, supported by accelerating demand from the aging population and limited new supply.
• Investor interest is gradually returning, with capital increasingly focused on stabilized assets and experienced operators as operating performance strengthens.

Quick-Service Restaurants:

• Quick-Service Restaurants (QSRs) performance remains resilient, supported by consistent consumer demand, value-oriented pricing, and strong brand loyalty across major brands.
• Net-lease QSR assets remain attractive to investors due to their defensive characteristics, efficient footprints, and long-term lease structures.

Self Storage:

• The self-storage sector is normalizing following several years of elevated development, with new supply growth slowing across many U.S. markets.
• Investor activity remains selective, favoring stabilized assets in markets with limited new construction and favorable long-term demand drivers.